Methods on quantifying ecological operation target based on bio-hydrological response model for stimulating the reproduction of four major Chinese carps in the Three Gorges Reservoir

为了改善生态调度效果,提高生态调度实践成功率,采用医学领域适用性广、准确性高、直观性强的受试者工作特征曲线法(receiver operating characteristic, ROC),以三峡水库为例,提出了一套基于生物水文响应模型的刺激四大家鱼繁殖生态调度目标量化方法,包括涨水事件界定及生态水文指标选择、鱼类自然繁殖事件及有效繁殖响应界定、生物-水文响应模型构建与多指标判别优选等多个环节。运用三峡水库运行后2013—2019年(除2016年)6年47场次宜昌江段的涨水事件和24次四大家鱼有效繁殖响应的实际观测数据构建模型并量化三峡水库生态调度目标。结果表明:(1)依据初始流量Q0、洪峰流量Qpeak、流量总增长量Qsum和流量日增长率dQ这4个指标所建立的单指标生物-水文响应模型具有较好判别四大家鱼自然繁殖对水文条件是否响应的能力;(2)各评价指标Q0、Qpeak、Qsum、dQ的最佳阈值分别为14960 m3/s、19610 m3/s、4050 m3/s及1405 m3/(s·d);单指标模型性能排序为dQ＞Qpeak＞Qsum＞Q0;(3)依据dQ或Qpeak的指标组合方式建立的多指标生物-水文响应模型综合性能最佳。结果表明,ROC模型方法结果形式简单、预见性强,据此量化生态调度目标,可为其他流域、水库的鱼类繁殖响应判别和水库生态调度方案制定提供参考借鉴。;In order to improve the ecological operation effect and increase success rate of practice, a set target quantification methods based on bio-hydrological response model for stimulating reproduction four major Chinese carps is proposed. The method includes definition upwelling event, selection eco-hydrological indicators, natural fish event effective response, construction multi-indicator discriminative preference. actual observed data 47 events 24 responses in Yichang River section 6 years after Three Gorges Reservoir from 2013 2019 (except 2016), were used construct quantify planning goals reservoir. results showed that (1) single-indicator indicators initial flow (Q0), peak flood (Qpeak), total growth (Qsum) daily (dQ) had ability discriminate whether carp was responsive hydrological conditions; (2) optimal thresholds above evaluation 14960 m3/s, 19610 4050 m3/s 1405 m3/(s·d), respectively; performance single indicator ranked as dQ>Qpeak>Qsum>Q0; (3) comprehensive combination dQ or Qpeak best. are simple predictable, can be targets, which provide reference discriminating formulating reservoir different watersheds reservoirs.